VILIQ Flow
Where capital pressure is building, and where it is retreating
Global money flow
The transmission chain VILIQ examines, with each relationship's strength and lead or lag measured from the current window rather than assumed.
Scroll the diagram sideways to see the full chain, or read the table below it.
| Relationship | Strength | Observed lag | Why this relationship is examined |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rates → Bonds | 70 | 0d | Policy expectations set the anchor for longer-dated yields. |
| Liquidity → US dollar | not measured | not measured | Expanding liquidity typically weakens the dollar at the margin. |
| Liquidity → Rates | not measured | not measured | Reserve abundance feeds through to short-term rate pressure. |
| US dollar → Equities | too few inputs | not measured | Dollar strength tightens global financial conditions for risk assets. |
| Bonds → Equities | too few inputs | not measured | Discount rates move equity valuation multiples. |
| Credit → Equities | too few inputs | not measured | Credit spreads lead equity risk appetite in most regimes. |
| Bonds → Gold | not measured | not measured | Real yields are the main cost of holding gold. |
| US dollar → Gold | not measured | not measured | Gold is priced in dollars, so the currency leg is mechanical. |
Where each reading comes from
A node’s pressure is VILIQ calculated from the published inputs named beside it. The inputs are observed; the pressure is not.
Liquidity
Net pressure +2
- Class
- VILIQ calculated
- Inputs observed
- 70%
- Computed from
- M2 money supply, Central bank balance sheet, Bank reserves, Treasury General Account (TGA), Reverse repo balance (RRP)Missing: Global liquidity
- Sources
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, U.S. Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- Latest input
US dollar
Net pressure -28
- Class
- VILIQ calculated
- Inputs observed
- 100%
- Computed from
- Broad dollar index (Federal Reserve)
- Sources
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Latest input
Rates
Net pressure -74
- Class
- VILIQ calculated
- Inputs observed
- 100%
- Computed from
- Policy rate, 2Y Treasury yield, 10Y real yield
- Sources
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York, U.S. Department of the Treasury
- Latest input
Bonds
Net pressure -73
- Class
- VILIQ calculated
- Inputs observed
- 100%
- Computed from
- 10Y Treasury yield, Yield curve (10Y−2Y), 10Y real yield
- Sources
- U.S. Department of the Treasury, VILIQ calculation from official inputs
- Latest input
Credit
Not observed
- Class
- Not known
- Inputs observed
- 0%
- Computed from
- No input observedMissing: High-yield credit spread, Equity volatility
- Sources
- Not known
- Latest input
- Not known
Equities
Not observed
- Class
- Not known
- Inputs observed
- 0%
- Computed from
- No input observedMissing: Equity flows, Equity ETF flows, Equity breadth, Equity volatility
- Sources
- Not known
- Latest input
- Not known
Gold
Net pressure -59
- Class
- VILIQ calculated
- Inputs observed
- 60%
- Computed from
- 10Y real yield, Broad dollar index (Federal Reserve)Missing: Gold ETF flows
- Sources
- U.S. Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Latest input
Silver
Too few inputs to measure
- Class
- Not known
- Inputs observed
- 30%
- Computed from
- Broad dollar index (Federal Reserve)Missing: Gold ETF flows, Growth (PMI)
- Sources
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Latest input
Bitcoin
Not observed
- Class
- Not known
- Inputs observed
- 0%
- Computed from
- No input observedMissing: Bitcoin ETF flows, Stablecoin supply, Bitcoin exchange net flow, Global liquidity
- Sources
- Not known
- Latest input
- Not known
Ethereum
Not observed
- Class
- Not known
- Inputs observed
- 0%
- Computed from
- No input observedMissing: Bitcoin ETF flows, Stablecoin supply, Global liquidity
- Sources
- Not known
- Latest input
- Not known
Digital risk assets
Not observed
- Class
- Not known
- Inputs observed
- 0%
- Computed from
- No input observedMissing: Stablecoin supply, Equity volatility, Global liquidity
- Sources
- Not known
- Latest input
- Not known
Cash
Net pressure -22
- Class
- VILIQ calculated
- Inputs observed
- 70%
- Computed from
- Reverse repo balance (RRP), Policy rateMissing: Equity volatility
- Sources
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- Latest input
Input coverage
VILIQ scales a node by the inputs it actually observed, rather than treating a missing series as a zero.
45% of expected macro inputs were available for this reading.
Currently unavailable (12):
Global liquidity, High-yield credit spread, Equity volatility, Equity breadth, Equity flows, Equity ETF flows, Gold ETF flows, Bitcoin ETF flows, Stablecoin supply, Bitcoin exchange net flow, Inflation (year on year), Growth (PMI)
Source notices
- © 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Content from the New York Fed subject to the Terms of Use at newyorkfed.org.
- VILIQ calculation from U.S. Department of the Treasury par yields
Ask VILIQ Research about this reading
The chain shown is the set of relationships VILIQ examines, not a claim that capital always moves in this order. Each relationship’s direction, strength and lag are measured from the current window and will break down in some regimes — which is usually the interesting case. VILIQ provides market intelligence, research and educational information. It is not financial product advice and does not take your personal circumstances into account. Consider your own situation and seek licensed advice before making financial decisions.